Monday, July 24, 2006

Spin Polling

I didn't comment on the MN Poll results. While the Left was a bit apprehensive, and the Right was rapid firing post after post about how flawed the poll was, I chose to remain silent since a poll is only a picture of a moment in time. And the only moment in time that matters is the one on election day.

Now those same spinmeisters are fawning over another poll, while the Left is pointing out you can't compare apples to oranges (or Zogbies to STRIBs). Or can you:
Well, comparing different polls with different methodologies is always dangerous, especially since one of them is the Zogby poll. But ignoring polls is no fun, so I'll take a stab at it. It seems to me that taken together, these polls suggest that Amy Klobuchar's support is rock-solid, and right around 50%. Mark Kennedy's support, meanwhile, is softer, and probably somewhere in the high thirties or low forties.
So there are two things consistent in BOTH polls. 1) Amy is kicking booty!, and 2) she is polling at close to 50% or better (MN Poll 50, Zogby 49.4). It is Kennedy's numbers that are all over the place. We can all speculate why that is the case, but fluid support at this time of year is not very healthy for a candidate hoping to win an election.


UPDATE: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has released a poll from Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal That also has Amy at 50%, with Kennedy floundering. These results are very similar to the MN Poll. From the Press Release:
A new survey of the Minnesota Senate race has Amy Klobuchar up by 16 points in her campaign against Republican Mark Kennedy, leading him 50-34. The poll corroborates the findings of a public survey from last week that had Klobuchar up 19 points.

“Getting change in Washington begins by sending Amy Klobuchar to the Senate and this poll vindicates that point,” DSCC spokesman Phil Singer said. “Mark Kennedy’s efforts to obscure his real positions in order to trick people into voting for him aren’t working.”

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