Thursday, May 18, 2006

2006 Crystal Ball

The Moderate Voice points us to the 2006 Election Forecast Map from Congressional Quarterly. Let's see what they have to say about MN.

Safe Democratic

Minn. 4 -- McCollum
Minn. 5 -- Sabo*
Minn. 7 -- Peterson
Minn. 8 -- Oberstar

Leans Republican

Minn. 6 -- Kennedy*

Republican Favored

Minn. 1 -- Gutknecht
Minn. 2 -- Kline

Safe Republican

Minn. 3 -- Ramstad
Tim Walz's campaign in the 1st is putting that race on the radar. I would have assumed in any other year that seat would have been listed safe with Ramstad. The 6th will be a dog fight, but it is an uphill battle for the Dems to take.

No Clear Favorite

Minn. -- Dayton*
CQ has it a toss up. Most recent polling from both sides of the aisle show this a lean Dem in what will be a bitterly fought battle. This Seat is Amy's to win, but it will take complete focus on the issues, and rapid response to the brutal attack we expect from the Right. It will be an interesting Summer.

No Clear Favorite

Minn. -- Pawlenty
Governor TPaw is in trouble, and with all the stadium talk going on in conference committee I am still not sure how he will reconcile his no new tax pledge with stadium bills that will have some form of revenue enhancement in them by the time they reach his desk. Since these bills are passing with very slim margins, a veto over-ride is unlikely. So Tim will have to balance his pledge to the Taxpayers League with the possiblility of being stuck with the label of 'The Governor who kicked the Twins out of the State' legacy. He's broken the pledge once already, what's one more shot for political ambitions sake.


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