Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Catch a Falling Star . . .

. . . and put it in your pocket!
a funny thing happened: Palin lost some of her luster. Since Sept. 13, Palin's unfavorables have climbed from 30 percent to 36 percent. Meanwhile, her favorables have slipped from 52 percent to 48 percent. That's a three-day net swing of -10 points, and it leaves her in the Sept. 15 Diageo/Hotline tracking poll with the smallest favorability split (+10) of any of the Final Four. Over the course of a single weekend, in other words, Palin went from being the most popular White House hopeful to the least.

What happened? I'd argue that Palin's considerable novelty is starting to wear off. In part it's the result of a steady stream of unhelpful stories: her unfamiliarity with the Bush Doctrine during last Thursday's interview with Charles Gibson (video above); her refusal to cooperate with the Troopergate investigation; her repeated stretching of the truth on everything from earmarks to the Bridge to Nowhere to the amount of energy her state produces. That stuff has a way of inspiring disapproval and eroding one's support. (Interestingly, Palin's preparedness numbers--about 50 percent yes, 45 percent no--haven't budged.) But mostly it's the start of an inevitable process. Between now and Nov. 4, voters will stop seeing Palin as a fascinating story and starting taking her measure as an actual candidate for office.
Should have saved this candidate for a raining day. Instead, even McCain's Victory 2008 chair Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, is off message:
Palin would've been unqualified to lead HP--a slightly less demanding role than leading the free world. Today's exchange:

HOST: "Do you think she has the experience to run a major company like Hewlett Packard?"

FIORINA: "No, I don't. But that's not what she's running for."
The bounce has all but faded, recent Swing State Polls were taken during the post RNC Honeymoon. The world is slowly correcting itself.


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