Thursday, May 01, 2008

Fishing for a Fissure

Let's be clear, polls are nothing more than a snapshot of a moment in time. Their accuracy is no better than the methodology used, and the credibility of those responding. But for the subject of this post, numbers matter.

Real Clear Politics has been tracking general election scenarios for awhile now. Now one would think, with all the internal scuffling going down in the Democratic endorsement battle, that McCain, at least for now, should be cleaning house. But that is not the case.

When we look at general election polling, both candidates seem to hold up pretty well. Granted, there is movement at this early stage, but there is no sign of fracturing within the party. The Right will point to the Obama -v- Clinton factions bickering within the blogosphere, but that is inside baseball. The general populace, I believe, is pretty flexible at this point. They, like myself, recognize the importance of returning the White House to the party of sanity.

I don't read too much into the "I won't vote for your candidate if mine doesn't win" talk. When I see numbers like this, as early as it is, it sure looks to me like the Democratic candidate, regardless of whom, is set up nicely for a November 'W'

Now, anything can happen in the world of presidential politics, but one thing I am pretty confident about, the fissure in the party is greatly exaggerated.


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