Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Lucky Thirteen

Is it the beginning of the end. There is thirteen days till March 4th, a date that will either clinch the nomination for Barack Obama, or thrust Hillary Clinton back on to the stage. With only the New Mexico feather in her cap, Sen. Clinton is in a must win situation in key delegate rich states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania down the road. A sweep their, especially with a double digit victory, will keep her in the game. And I think that is important should Sen. Obama get the nod.

Hey, I like the guy. If I was the king maker I would pick him over Hillary. But he is untested in a national GOP dog fight, and we saw what they did to a war hero like Kerry. Imagine what they will do to a kid like Obama. Hillary, for all her faults, and there are many, is pretty Teflon to the GOP attack machine. There is a reason her negatives are high, but they are also unwavering. People already have a pretty good opinion of her. The GOP attack machine will be muted and they will have to debate the issues. And we all know that when it comes to the issues, the GOP is left in the dust.

OK, lets look at some numbers (excuse the formatting).

OHIO 141 Delegates

RCP Average 02/06 - 02/18 - 52.7 38.0 Clinton +14.7
SurveyUSA 02/17 - 02/18 733 LV 52 43 Clinton +9.0
Rasmussen 02/13 - 02/13 754 LV 51 37 Clinton +14.0
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 564 LV 55 34 Clinton +21.0

TEXAS 193 Delegates
RCP Average 02/11 - 02/18 - 50.2 42.6 Clinton +7.6
SurveyUSA 02/16 - 02/18 660 LV 50 45 Clinton +5.0
CNN 02/15 - 02/17 529 LV 50 48 Clinton +2.0
Rasmussen 02/14 - 02/14 577 LV 54 38 Clinton +16.0
InsiderAdvantage 02/14 - 02/14 403 LV 48 41 Clinton +7.0
TCUL/Hamilton 02/11 - 02/13 400 LV 49 41 Clinton +8.0

PENNSYLVANIA 158 Delegates
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 577 LV 52 36 Clinton +16.0

So the three state run is certainly doable, and we will find out over the next two weeks if the Sen. Obama movement can sustain itself for that long without anything to draw from. Hey, I just wanna win. The future of this country is at stake, and we have already seen the damage that can be done with 8 years of a GOP White House, I don;t want to imagine what another 4 will do.


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