Monday, December 17, 2007

Iowa Prognositcation

The games begin in about two weeks, and everything happens very quick after that. I don't know if people really realize how quickly this first phase is going to be over. I am convinced this won't be healthy for either party. Whomever is peaking will have the edge, and that won't necessarily mean the best candidate for the general.

As mentioned below in the comments, here is my take on what I believe to be the most likely scenario.

Edwards must win Iowa to survive, and I just don't see it.

Obama has made significant gains with Hillary a close second. Edwards a distant third and Gov Bill hovering around double digits for some time. Once Edwards recognizes his time has come and gone, his supporters will have to decide a new direction. I am not sure where they will go, but I suspect that there is NOT many Edwards supporters that have Hillary as their #2.

This race will start getting more interesting once Edwards sucks it up and takes a bow then we will start seeing how much truth there is to the anti Hillary surge. I know in Iowa she isn't in many peoples #2 slot.

Before Super Duper Tuesday in February, Edwards will be gone, along with probably Biden and/or Dodd. Obama and Clinton will battle it out for the top spot while Richardson quietly gains the support of the underlings. There is a reason those folks weren't supporting Obama or Clinton to begin with. We'll know on Feb 6th who the nominee is, and the GOP will be gunning from them all the way through the general.


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