Sunday, November 04, 2007

A Year To Go!

November 4, 2008, Presidential Election day. This campaign season started earlier then anyone could imagine.

On the Presidential side, we have Sen Hillary in the driver's seat, with Guiliani the consensus front runner for the GOP. If these were our nominees, and the election were held today, I don't think I would have a big problem pulling the lever for the Former Big Apple mayor. But I don't think the Right is that smart. They won't recognize him as the most electable option they have in an election that will be defined by change. Rudy doesn't pass the ideological purity test. No, they'll end up with a Romney, or a surprise move by Huckabee. Even Fred Thompson hasn't been able to get any traction since his Post Announcement bubble burst. Dick Morris echoes my thoughts:
On the Republican side, a Romney victory in Iowa would virtually guarantee a win in New Hampshire. The two states, in media terms, are practically one. Two-thirds of New Hampshire lives in the southern part of the state that watches Boston television every night. Since Romney served as governor in Massachusetts, he will probably win New Hampshire anyway. A win in Iowa would make it a fait accompli.

Two victories would make Romney the front-runner for the Republican nomination. Coupled with a Giuliani stumble in Iowa, it could totally change the dynamic of the Republican primary. Here’s what might happen:

· Rudy could come to be seen as too antagonistic to the Christian right, and moderates might once again turn to McCain as the less inflammatory option, sidetracking the former New York mayor.

· Huckabee, coming in a strong second, could take off and become the poor man’s Romney, taking advantage of his greater consistency on social issues, his Christian (read: non-Mormon) beliefs, and his support of the Fair Tax as an alternative to the IRS.

· Republicans would likely panic about the idea of a Mormon candidate and worry about his prospects, making Huckabee and either Rudy or McCain viable as alternatives.

· Thompson will be forced out, having lost his position as the socially conservative answer to Rudy.
Which brings us to the Senate race. At this point, none of the DFL candidates have been able to convince me that their seat in the Senate would be as, or more valuable, then the incumbent. With all his faults, Sen. Coleman has done a pretty good job of balancing the expectations of his constituency with his own ideology. Sen. Norm is no Mark Kennedy. Kennedy tried desperately to distance himself from the President, but his congressional voting record was too much to counter. Sen. Coleman has a much more moderate rating and can point to several opportunities he broke away from the party.

The DFL is offering us a Hollywood name with baggage, a rich attorney with somewhat less baggage, a grassroots longshot and a Peacenick. None of these candidates have really been successful explaining to me how they would be able to be better for the state than our current Senator. They are too busy sniping at each other about who was against the war first, and how much against the war they are now. That is obviously not an issue they will be able to win my vote on.

Norm has been labeled a RINO by the base, bucked the White House on SCHIP. Tracy shares:
Norm Coleman voted to raise the tax on my cigars to $3 after lying to me in a letter saying that those provisions had been removed. Can anyone blame me if I don't work too hard to get this asshole re-elected?
Anyone who Tracy is that pissed at, certainly deserves a look by me. And since the Candidates on the Left are too busy sniping at each other, if the election were to be held today, I'd plug my nose and pull the Norm lever. They have a year to prove to me otherwise.

I will now put on my flak jacket *laughing*


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