Friday, August 24, 2007

The Presidential Line

Chris Cillizza of The Fix posts his Friday Presidential Line. The Top 5 and some snippets:


1) Hillary
Clinton has effectively neutralized many of the doubts about her candidacy, including her initial vote for the 2002 resolution authorizing the use of force against Iraq. Polling seems to show voters are more interested in plans for the future than examinations of the past.
2) Obama
Obama has begun to push back against that experience argument by noting that despite the years and years of political experience of other candidates in the race, he was the only one of the frontrunners to get it right when it came to Iraq. His judgment was better, and after all isn't good judgment at the core of being a leader?
3) Edwards
Edwards has begun to draw contrasts with Obama in an attempt to wrest the change mantle from the Illinois Senator. Edwards has attacked Obama's plan to reform lobbying in Washington and continually calls for "bold" change.
4) Richardson
polls continue to show positive movement in Iowa and New Hampshire and he puts together his best debate performance to date . . . . Richardson needs to continue to stay under the frontrunners' radar for the next few months and catch fire in December and early January.
5) Dodd
of all the remaining candidates he has the financial firepower to play seriously in Iowa. That means that if something cataclysmic takes place at the top of the field, he will have the money to take advantage. The same can't be said for Sen. Joe Biden

1 Tie) Giuliani
we're beginning to wonder whether anything will stick to Giuliani. Nothing has so far and we're not sure that's because the performance of the former New York mayor immediately after Sept. 11, 2001 affords him insulation or because Republican voters prize "electability" over all other traits.
1 Tie) Romney
Romney and his team stuck to their guns and have watched as he has risen to the top of polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire thanks to an onslaught of commercials. And, he used that organizational heft to score a convincing win in the Ames Straw poll earlier this month. Yet, even Romney's strategists acknowledge that the candidate has not closed the sale with voters in these early states.
3) Thompson
it doesn't appear as though the problems that have plagued the candidate-in-waiting are solved. That should be worrisome to all the Fredheads out there. What should give them some solace is the fact that Thompson continues to run second or third in the vast majority of state and national polling we've seen.
4) Huckabee
Huckabee's best day in the campaign so far was Aug. 11. His surprise second place showing at Ames was -- finally! -- a sign of life from a candidate whose upside (to quote NBA draft analysts) is as high as anyone in the field.
5) McCain
This has been a precipitous fall for McCain. With a skeleton staff and dwindling chances in both Iowa and South Carolina, it appears as though his last best shot to influence the outcome is in New Hampshire, where McCain became MCCAIN!
By the first of the year, I suspect at least one of these top 5 from each party will be gone. For the Dems it will be Obama or Edwards. For the GOP, probably McCain, or possible Huckabee.

Things will start thinning out soon, and with the early primaries, the presumptive nominees will be inked in by the end of February.

What do you think?


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