Monday, October 18, 2004

Not Even Close

Polls , shmolls, this election is shaping up to be not even close. The Polls don;t even consider some of the trends we have seen from the inside, and when you read Byron William's take on this, it is rather compelling.

He notes that voter registration is significantly up in strong Democratic counties of the swing states of Ohio and Florida, especially when compared to the RNC voter registration efforts.
According to the New York Times, voter registration campaigns in heavily Democratic areas have added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that far exceeds the efforts of Republicans in both states.

The analysis by the Times of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio -- primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods -- new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000.

In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida: In the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican areas.
The other issue mentioned is that a re-elect ion campaign is more of a referendum of the sitting President, and with Wrong Track numbers in the upper 50's, the Undecided will certainly break quite heavy for the challenger.

I am not quite ready to return to my 'Kerry in a walk' meme, but I tend to believe that this year won't be anywhere near the nail biter of 2000. And with the polls showing Bush slightly ahead, that mean the Right will relax, and we'll catch them off guard!


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