Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Victory Scenarios

Charlie Cook of National Journal takes the presidential race one extra step and gives his impression of what it will take for each candidate to claim the White House. Here is his take on Richardson, for example:
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is not surging as dramatically as he was before, although he is still moving up. The only realistic scenario for Richardson is that either Obama or Edwards finishes ahead of Clinton in Iowa, then the Iowa victor loses in New Hampshire and Richardson manages to come in either second or third place in each. This is a very long shot, but theoretically it's possible.
and his take on Clinton:
f Clinton were to win Iowa, she would be all but unstoppable as she already is looking very strong in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.

At this stage, the Iowa contest is a very competitive, three-way affair between Clinton, former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. Clinton might be the only candidate who could lose Iowa and either New Hampshire or South Carolina and not necessarily be mortally wounded. Her rivals do not appear to have sufficient strength to survive such a blow.

However, losing all three would knock her out.
He also examines the Right:
On the GOP side, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney would have to win a trifecta of the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries to put this nomination away. Romney is running strong in Iowa and in New Hampshire. He would need to win both, and then beat former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in South Carolina to show that he can beat anyone, anywhere.

This isn't to say that Romney has to win all three to win the nomination, only to score an early knockout.
Read it all, it's like peering into a crystal ball.


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