Centrisity

2004 Election Prognostication

I believe this is a conservative estimate. I actually rolled back my electoral and popular number from where I believe they may be. I sincerely expect this will not be as close as the race has been. Bottom line, Kerry wins handily in the elctoral college, with a possibility of Bush squeaking by in the popular vote. But if the turnout is anywhere near as high as they expect, GW won't have a chance!

Here goes!

Popular Vote

48.9 Bush
48.8 Kerry

Electoral Vote

295 Kerry
243 Bush

Surprises

Ohio AND Florida go Kerry
Hawaii Goes Bush

When will we know

By Midnight Central we'll have a pretty good handle on our new reality. Although the race is tight going in, I really believe this will be a more traditional Election night, with most of us being able to go to bed at a reasonable hour, knowing the outcome.

New Senate

49 R
50 D
1 I

New House of Representatives

219 R
216 D
001 I

Locally

Kerry will win Minnesota by 5-7 point, surpassing Gore's performance. The Congressional makeup will remain the same, with the closest of the bunch being the Kline/Daly race in the 2nd district. Kline will still will by 5-7 points.

The Washington Post listed predictions from 13 popular political strategists/pundits that you may find interesting. Most are homer picks, but Tucker Carlson shows his growing unease by predicting a Kerry Victory. Take a peak if you haven't seen it yet.

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