Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Jobs, Glorious Jobs

With my pending trip to the beach, I have been following the job market and the glorious statement by GW to create 2.6 million jobs by the end of the year. Now, to think he can replace. in a few short months, the entire job loss throughout his entire term seems almost foolish to even suggest. Again, the exaggeration of this claim will only hurt the incumbent as the election draws near.

One of the articles that caught my eye, was this piece I stumbled across. See, GW and Greenspan are counting on a drop in productivity (the amount of work you get from an employee) integral in supporting a job creation boom.

Now, there are times I throw out the Job loss rate of the current administration, but Jobs is a lagging indicators, and for the most part, is a poor gauge for how the economy is currently performing.

Once again, however, the current administration chooses to throw gas on the fire. They are promoting a job growth expectation that can only come true if the productivity of the current work force drops. Now granted, the pace of productivity can't continue at it's present rate for long, but it, in itself, is a lagging component as well.

In order for the White House job forecast to come true at 2.7 productivity growth, the economy would need to grow 5.7 percent this year or faster, which would be the highest annual growth since 1984, and is far higher than any economists are forecasting.

"It's difficult to foresee a growth rate where we will find 320,000 jobs" each month, Chan said.

For me, it means that I may be underemployed, tucked away in a computer lab in the bowels of some inner city elementary school. For GW it means he has to count on the American Worker getting lazy.

He with so little faith . . .

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