* The economy could reviveI say #1 is the main reason, the economy will be going from a sputtering restart to an Idle right around the time November rolls around. The Right will be hard pressed to take credit when they have been blaming the administration right as the inauguration was in full swing.
* The Republican Party is still unpopular
* Republicans are disorganized
* Republicans have no agenda
* The tea parties are not enough
The PArty is still unpopular, which is why in a recent poll the Tea Party Movement received higher numbers then both major parties.
I accept there is a power vacuum within the GOP, but still believe they are far more organized the the Left will ever be. To hold all their Congressional caucus members to the No votes is proof of that.
Their agenda is clear,just say 'No', but I believe as the economy returns, and the Right obstructionist tactics are revealed the public will become very frustrated and allow the President an opportunity to finish the job with the people he needs to accomplish that.
Finally, it is no that the Tea Party Movement won;t be enough, it is that it will splinter the votes of reliable conservatives, leaving open the opportunity for vulnerable Democratic Candidates to sneak in.
Seriously, we have almost a whole year in a p[political environment where a week is an eternity. WAY too early for the Left to be panicking, and the Right to be measuring curtains in the majority leader or Speaker's offices.