Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Races to Watch

This off year election has more significance then usual. With the second term of President Bush proving to be more of a hindrance then a help to GOP candidates, the voters will now decide how much of a lame duck this current administration really is.

Governor's races in Virginia (Red State) and New Jersey (Blue State) may be our best gauge as to the accuracy of the sentiment toward the President, along with initiatives on the Ballot in California.

A blood bath of sort, pitting diehard conservative Jerry Kilgore against sitting Democratic Lt. Governor Tim Kaine. Current polling gives the Lt. Governor a slight 5% lead, backing off from the 9 point lead the precious poll showed. Virginia may be the best bell weather as Bush directly campaigned for Kilgore in the final days. The democrats welcomed the visit:
At a campaign event for Kaine, the Democratic incumbent, Gov. Mark R. Warner, welcomed the president's arrival. Bush, even in reliably Republican Virginia, suffers job-approval ratings of around 40 percent.
The Blue state offers up US Sen. Jon Corzine and the GOP endorsed candidate Doug Forester. That polling also has the Blue Senator leading 50% to 44% in a poll concluding yesterday. The respective candidates had a slightly different approach to who to bring in for the final blitz:
In New Jersey, U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine campaigned with fellow Democrat U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg while Republican candidate Doug Forrester enlisted New York Gov. George Pataki for a frantic final day of campaigning.
There are also several mayoral races on the docket. Among them; New York, Detroit Kilpatrick-i 44% 0 Hendrix 51%), Houston, Boston, San Diego (Sanders-R 52% - Frye-D 47%), Atlanta, and of course St. Paul.

In California, traditional Republican initiatives are on the ballot in this bright Blue state, including:
Schwarzenegger's initiatives would cap state spending and give him more power to cut budgets, rein in public employee unions, and take away legislators' power to redistrict.
Proposition explanations and polling data:
Prop 73 -- Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?

Yes 51 (55)
No 47 (44)

Prop 74 -- Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?

Yes 48 (49)
No 51 (50)

Prop 75 -- Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?

Yes 45 (50)
No 54 (49)

Prop 76 -- Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. The Governor would be granted new authority to reduce state spending, [including school funding,] during certain fiscal situations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

Yes 39 (49)
No 59 (49)

Prop 77 -- Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?

Yes 41 (42)
No 56 (56)
So there is more then enough excitement this evening to keep us night owls engaged. If I run across other interesting match-ups, I'll be sure to share.


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