As I've posted here before, my usual antennae do not detect a big problem for Pawlenty. And yet the polls keep showing that he's got a problem and every person I know -- who knows -- says Pawlenty is afraid he's going to lose this election, and he might.we have some numbers from the St. Cloud Times/SCSU that continues the trend to a better future for Minnesota. The data reads:
the survey finds Democratic Party U.S. Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar leads her Republican opponent, U.S. Rep. Mark Kennedy, by a 56 percent to 31 percent margin among the 594 likely voters who participated. Independence Party candidate Robert Fitzgerald drew support from 3 percent, while another 7 percent supported other candidates or were undecided.US SENATE
In the race for governor, DFL Attorney General Mike Hatch leads Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty by a 46 percent to 36 percent margin. Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson pulled in 6 percent and another 11 percent said they'd vote for someone else or hadn't decided.
Most interesting in the SC Times article was this comment:
"This could also be the beginning of the end for the Minnesota Independence Party," Wagner said.I find value in a third (or more) party, but sometimes you reach a point where the fringe parties are marginalized to a point where A) They can't win, but B) they can still effect the outcome of the election by drawing voters away from a more viable candidate. It's time for Independent voters in the state to evaluate what their vote actually means, just like the Republican voters in the 5th.
UPDATE: MPR/PiPress/Mason Dixon poll results:
St. Paul, Minn. — The Mason-Dixon poll conducted for Minnesota Public Radio and the St. Paul Pioneer Press surveyed 625 registered voters from last Thursday through Monday. The results show 44 percent favor Democrat Mike Hatch, while 42 percent support Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty. Peter Hutchinson, of the Independence Party, had 4 percent. Seven percent were undecided. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.44% Hatch